Incorrect estimation
At 9:29 p.m. on 18 October, 2005, Tiragem wrote...

Just a quick update - I found out the actual number of murders thus far for the year.

I based my estimation of 280 on the number of days passed for the year so far - 291.

Apparently, I was a bit too conservative - 23 murders too conservative actually.

The number of murders thus far for the year is in fact 303.

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